Recent developments in the Democratic Party have sparked intense speculation about the future of the 2024 presidential race, with Vice President Kamala Harris emerging as the frontrunner to replace President Joe Biden should he choose to withdraw his bid for reelection.
This information comes from seven high-ranking sources within the Biden campaign, the White House, and the Democratic National Committee, all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions.
The catalyst for this sudden surge of speculation was Biden’s widely criticized performance in the first debate against former President Donald Trump. Biden’s apparent struggles during the presidential debate, characterized by fumbling responses and moments of incoherence, have sent shockwaves through the Democratic Party establishment.
Proposed Candidates
The fallout has been significant, with some party members calling for the resignation of top Biden aides and others expressing serious doubts about the 81-year-old president’s fitness for a second term. Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas said in a statement,
“Recognizing that, unlike Trump, President Biden’s first commitment has always been to our country, not himself, I am hopeful that he will make the painful and difficult decision to withdraw. I respectfully call on him to do so.”
Illinois Rep. Mike Quigley, referring to Biden, said on Tuesday that,
“He clearly has to understand, I think, what you’re getting to here is that his decision not only impacts who’s going to serve in the White House the next four years but who’s going to serve in the Senate, who’s going to serve in the House, and it will have implications for decades to come.”
In the wake of this controversy, alternative candidates have been proposed by influential Democrats. Names floated include popular cabinet members and Democratic governors such as Gavin Newsom of California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.
Several factors contribute to Harris’s position as the presumptive heir to Biden’s campaign. At 59, she brings relative youth to the ticket compared to Biden. Moreover, as the sitting vice president, she would inherit significant advantages, such as the substantial war chest already raised by the Biden campaign and the established campaign infrastructure.
Kamala Harris’ Popularity
Harris also benefits from her high name recognition among voters and strong polling numbers within the Democratic base. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll underscores her viability as a candidate, showing her trailing Trump by just one percentage point (42% to 43%), well within the poll’s 3.5 percentage point margin of error. This performance is statistically comparable to Biden’s own standing against Trump.
Furthermore, Harris has already undergone the rigorous vetting process required for national office and has weathered intense scrutiny from Republicans throughout her tenure as vice president. Her position is further bolstered by the support of key Democratic figures, including U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn, whose endorsement was crucial to Biden’s 2020 victory.
Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist with experience working on Hillary Clinton’s campaigns, emphasized the practical difficulties of challenging a sitting vice president for the nomination:
“It’s pretty near impossible to win the nomination over the vice president.”
Commitment to Biden’s Candidacy
Despite these discussions, the Biden administration maintains that the president remains committed to his reelection bid. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre dismissed concerns about Biden’s debate performance, characterizing it as simply a bad night.
For their part, Harris’s team has unequivocally rejected any speculation about a Democratic ticket that doesn’t include both Biden and Harris. In a statement, her office declared,
“Vice President Harris looks forward to serving a second term with President Joe Biden.”
The logistics of the nominating process also favor Harris. Biden has already secured 3,894 delegates through state primaries, leaving only a small number of uncommitted delegates. These delegates are expected to formally nominate Biden in a virtual meeting later this month, ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August.
Donna Brazile, former interim chair of the Democratic National Committee and a key figure in this year’s convention, reinforced Harris’s position:
“People may have dreams of another superhero but there is a process and the last time I checked it’s a Biden-Harris ticket, she’s number two on the ticket.”
Brazile reiterated that Biden remains the nominee for the Democratic Party and is not going anywhere.
First Black Woman, South Asian
The potential backlash from key Democratic constituencies also factors into Harris’s favor. As the first Black woman and person of South Asian descent to hold the office of vice president, Harris represents a historic breakthrough in American politics. Several Democratic strategists warn that passing over Harris for another candidate could alienate Black and women voters, who are crucial to the party’s electoral success.
However, Harris’s path to the nomination is not without challenges. Some influential Democrats harbor doubts about her ability to defeat Trump in a general election. The United States has never elected a woman president, and Harris has faced difficulties in establishing a distinct identity in her supporting role as vice president.
Party Donors
The shifting landscape of Democratic politics is reflected in the changing attitudes of party donors. Three Democratic donors who had been advocating for Biden to step aside acknowledged the difficulty of sidestepping Harris. One donor, who had previously favored alternatives like Whitmer and Newsom, conceded,
“There is a real conversation in the Democratic Party about leadership right now, but fair to say, and I’m not thrilled about this… it will be impossible to ignore Kamala.”
Despite these internal discussions and growing calls for Biden to step aside, his reelection campaign remains steadfast. They point to the president’s improved performance during a recent scripted speech in North Carolina as evidence of his continued capability.
